Oregon Public Broadcasting

The national economic slowdown is leaving its mark on our region in a spotty pattern.

RV and boat sales are down sharply.  The farm sector is holding up well.  Building permits are off.  The mining industry is hiring. 

In part one of a three part series we’re calling “The Squeeze”, correspondent Tom Banse sifted through regional economic indicators to see who the squeeze is hitting.

We’ll start with the most obvious indicator – jobs – and then go farther afield.  The July unemployment rate ranges from four to six percent in Idaho, Washington, and Oregon. 

Portland-based consulting economist John Mitchell says the current readings are right around the long-term averages, but are heading higher.

John Mitchell: “We’re going to see weakness for a bit longer.  I don’t think it’s over as we work through the excesses on the housing side. Credit conditions are going to remain tight.  The region is going to continue to be slow into the early parts of next year.”

Demand at food banks and for Food Stamps is another economic indicator.   In Idaho, the Food Stamp caseload is up sharply.  Try 18% higher in June this year over last year.  The caseload jumped nine percent in Oregon.

In Olympia, Washington, janitor Melody Matson says she visits the food bank much more often than she used to to make ends meet.

Melody Matson: “It’s kind of a cross between do you want to eat or do you want to drive.  Do you want to go to your appointments? If you have a vehicle, it’s less food money because it all goes into gas.”

Matson is a single mom.  She carpooled to the food bank to pick up eggs, cereal, pasta and meat to feed her four children.

Food banks are getting squeezed from many sides.  Client demand is up, donations down, and they’ve got higher bills due to gas prices just like their customers.

Now let’s take a make a quick detour to bankruptcy court for another indicator. 

In Oregon and Washington, bankruptcy filings are at the highest point since major reforms in bankruptcy law took effect nearly three years ago.  The director of the American Bankruptcy Institute says the uptick reflects “growing stress on household finances.”

Speaking of stress, how about power and heating bills? 

Here’s an unconventional economic indicator: utility shutoffs for non-payment.  By that measure, the Northwest is mostly doing OK. 

Idaho Power has actually experienced a small decrease lately.  Spokane-based Avista Utilities is alone in reporting an increase.  

Pacific Power spokesman Tom Gauntt says disconnects in its territory are “basically flat.”

Tom Gauntt: “But what is up is people calling up and saying, ‘You know, I think I’m starting to fall behind.  I need to do some sort of a work out plan.’  Usually we can offer a payment plan over the phone.  Also, even if it comes to that, when the person comes to the door and says, ‘I’m turning off your power now,’ that person is also authorized to take payment.”

People who heat or cook with natural gas should brace themselves for rate increases.  All of the region’s natural gas utilities are asking regulators for permission to pass along higher wholesale costs.

As long as we’re talking unconventional indicators, how about calls to the Crisis Clinic/community resources line?

In Seattle, the Crisis Clinic executive director says she’s “not seen any spikes lately.”  The last time there was an unusual jump in calls was during the “tech bust” seven years ago.

An independent research foundation finds economic stresses are causing more people to forego medical care.  The Commonwealth Fund randomly dialed 771 working-age adults across the West.

Sara Collins: “This is a really striking finding in the report...”

Lead researcher Sara Collins.

Sara Collins: ”We asked people whether they had not filled a prescription because of the cost of the prescription.  Whether they had ever not gone to the doctor over the past 12 months because it was too expensive. Whether they had skipped a medical test, treatment or follow up visit recommended by a doctor.  Or whether they’d not gone to a specialist when it was needed.”

Collins says roughly 40 percent answered yes to at least one of those questions -- that they’ve scrimped on health care.  Collins also says just over a third of Westerners reported problems paying the medical bills they did incur.

Sara Collins: “So families that were pressured and were experiencing economic stress during an expansion are really facing some difficult times ahead of them as we move into a recession.”

When might we see a turnaround?  Regional economist John Mitchell and the State of Oregon’s chief economist say the sign they’re looking for to signal better times is a rebound in the housing market.

Online:

The Commonwealth Fund: Biennial Health Insurance Survey results